本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛The answer to this question is... perhaps. It is known that Zhang Guotao failed, and without Mao's opposition he might have taken the entire CPC down with him, but that's honestly not worth speculating. It's also worth keeping in mind that Mao only survived Zhang's attempt to purge him because of the defection of Zhang's own subordinates Ye Jiangying and Yang Shangkun, so it's anybody's guess at how much damage Zhang could have caused to the CPC without Mao, because from these two people we know opposition to Zhang did exist beyond Mao.
If the CPC survived Zhang, then the answer is no. Chiang's power base at all times was only a portion of the KMT, with powerful warlords like Yan Xishan and Li Zongren splitting his power. As such, Chiang was almost always preoccupied with keeping his own power base rather than being an effective ruler. To illustrate this point, he undermined his own son, Chiang Ching-kuo's attempt's at reform in Shanghai because he moved his gold supply to Taiwan, and opposed Chiang's attempt to arrest his stepmother Soong's relatives for opposing him. He would have never been able to keep China as long as the CPC existed, because the CPC is filled with talent and unity after the Long March so the shortage of one (Mao) would not have hampered it by much.
The answer this question is baiting (and have been supplied) is that there wouldn't be a GLP or CR, and a lot of people would have survived.
Not so.
One thing that people, especially those who haven't studied Chinese history extensively, doesn't understand that people's lives were not valued until well after the 1980's, when Deng's modernization took form.
I will first illustrate with an anecdote in Sergei Witte's memoir:
Li Hongzhang was visiting Russia when the Khodynka Tragedy struck in 1896. He asked Witte, who was then Finance Minister, "The tsar doesn't know about this, right?"
Witte replied, "Our Tzar knows everything."
Li was shocked, "In my country, every year there's more than 10 million people dying from plague, but we've never told our emperor, how can you bother his majesty with such trivialities?"
Note this was one generation before Mao's time. People brought up then were taught that human life is expendable.
From the KMT government, we have:
1938 Yellow River flood. You can split hairs about the casualty count, but the overall attitude is there, death of a million is a statistic, we'll do anything to halt the enemy.
White Terror (Taiwan). Also keep in mind Taiwan was tiny and much easier to control.
History would have unfolded differently, certainly, but to say that more people would have lived is inconsistent with the environment rulers were brought up then.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net